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Solving mathematical problems is cognitively complex, involving strategy formulation, solution development, and the application of learned concepts. However, gaps in students' knowledge or weakly grasped concepts can lead to errors. Teachers play a crucial role in predicting and addressing these difficulties, which directly influence learning outcomes. However, preemptively identifying misconceptions leading to errors can be challenging. This study leverages historical data to assist teachers in recognizing common errors and addressing gaps in knowledge through feedback. We present a longitudinal analysis of incorrect answers from the 2015-2020 academic years on two curricula, Illustrative Math and EngageNY, for grades 6, 7, and 8. We find consistent errors across 5 years despite varying student and teacher populations. Based on these Common Wrong Answers (CWAs), we designed a crowdsourcing platform for teachers to provide Common Wrong Answer Feedback (CWAF). This paper reports on an in vivo randomized study testing the effectiveness of CWAFs in two scenarios: next-problem-correctness within-skill and next-problem-correctness within-assignment, regardless of the skill. We find that receiving CWAF leads to a significant increase in correctness for consecutive problems within-skill. However, the effect was not significant for all consecutive problems within-assignment, irrespective of the associated skill. This paper investigates the potential of scalable approaches in identifying Common Wrong Answers (CWAs) and how the use of crowdsourced CWAFs can enhance student learning through remediation. 

ABSTRACT Reported here are the genome sequences of Pseudomonas isolates that were derived from glyphosate-treated sediment microcosms. Genomes were assembled using workflows available through the Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Resource Center (BV-BRC). The genomes of eight Pseudomonas isolates were sequenced, with genomes ranging from 5.9 to 6.3 Mb. 

Abstract Wastewater injection has induced earthquakes in Northeastern Colorado since 2014. We apply ambient noise correlation techniques to determine temporal changes in seismic velocities in the region. We find no clear correlation between seismic velocity fluctuations and either injection volumes or seismicity patterns. We do observe apparent annual variations in velocity that may be associated with hydrologic loading or thermoelastic strain. In addition, we model uniform and vertically localized velocity perturbations, and measure the velocity change with 1D synthetic seismograms. Our results indicate that our methods underestimate the known velocity change, especially at shorter station distances and when variations are restricted to a horizontal layer. If injection does cause measurable velocity changes, its effect is likely diluted in cross correlations due to its localized spatial extent around injection wells. 

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract 

The globalization of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases has placed more than half of the human population at risk. Understanding arbovirus ecology, including the role individual mosquito species play in virus transmission cycles, is critical for limiting disease. Canonical virus-vector groupings, such as Aedes - or Culex -associated flaviviruses, have historically been defined using virus detection in field-collected mosquitoes, mosquito feeding patterns, and vector competence, which quantifies the intrinsic ability of a mosquito to become infected with and transmit a virus during a subsequent blood feed. Herein, we quantitatively synthesize data from 68 laboratory-based vector competence studies of 111 mosquito-virus pairings of Australian mosquito species and viruses of public health concern to further substantiate existing canonical vector-virus groupings and quantify variation within these groupings. Our synthesis reinforces current canonical vector-virus groupings but reveals substantial variation within them. While Aedes species were generally the most competent vectors of canonical “ Aedes -associated flaviviruses” (such as dengue, Zika, and yellow fever viruses), there are some notable exceptions; for example, Aedes notoscriptus is an incompetent vector of dengue viruses. Culex spp. were the most competent vectors of many traditionally Culex -associated flaviviruses including West Nile, Japanese encephalitis and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses, although some Aedes spp. are also moderately competent vectors of these viruses. Conversely, many different mosquito genera were associated with the transmission of the arthritogenic alphaviruses, Ross River, Barmah Forest, and chikungunya viruses. We also confirm that vector competence is impacted by multiple barriers to infection and transmission within the mesenteron and salivary glands of the mosquito. Although these barriers represent important bottlenecks, species that were susceptible to infection with a virus were often likely to transmit it. Importantly, this synthesis provides essential information on what species need to be targeted in mosquito control programs. 

Identifying the key vector and host species that drive the transmission of zoonotic pathogens is notoriously difficult but critical for disease control. We present a nested approach for quantifying the importance of host and vectors that integrates species’ physiological competence with their ecological traits. We apply this framework to a medically important arbovirus, Ross River virus (RRV), in Brisbane, Australia. We find that vertebrate hosts with high physiological competence are not the most important for community transmission; interactions between hosts and vectors largely underpin the importance of host species. For vectors, physiological competence is highly important. Our results identify primary and secondary vectors of RRV and suggest two potential transmission cycles in Brisbane: an enzootic cycle involving birds and an urban cycle involving humans. The framework accounts for uncertainty from each fitted statistical model in estimates of species’ contributions to transmission and has has direct application to other zoonotic pathogens. 

Whether and to what extent kindergarten children's executive functions (EF) constitute promising targets of early intervention is currently unclear. This study examined whether kindergarten children's EF predicted their second‐grade academic achievement and behavior. This was done using (a) a longitudinal and nationally representative sample (N = 8,920, Mage = 97.6 months), (b) multiple measures of EF, academic achievement, and behavior, and (c) extensive statistical control including for domain‐specific and domain‐general lagged dependent variables. All three measures of EF—working memory, cognitive flexibility, and inhibitory control—positively and significantly predicted reading, mathematics, and science achievement. In addition, inhibitory control negatively predicted both externalizing and internalizing problem behaviors. Children's EF constitute promising targets of experimentally evaluated interventions for increasing academic and behavioral functioning.